Development of a Market Trend Evaluation System for Policy Making
Valentas Gruzauskas, Andrius Krisciunas, Dalia Calneryte, Valentinas Navickas, Eva Koisova
Keywords:
evidenced-based policymaking, system thinking, market trends, competitiveness, regional development
Abstract:
The previous economic crisis has increased the attention of government to focus their activities
more on economic stability. The development of government subsidies requires an analytically
based analysis, one which would identify problematic areas of regional development more precisely.
However, to monitor market changes in a highly dynamic market is time consuming and
inefficient. Without proper market monitoring, the level of competitiveness within regions might
decrease in the long run. Thus, the goal of the article is to establish the framework of a market
trend monitoring system. To achieve this goal, the research methodology consists of a scientific
literature analysis, an analysis of available data infrastructure for market trend analysis, and a
statistical analysis together with a machine learning approach. The authors of the publication
propose a market monitoring framework which would provide an infrastructure for evidencebased
policy recommendations for government institutes and might provide guidelines of how to
increase their competitiveness. A case study of real estate data and macroeconomic indicators of
Lithuania was conducted, during which a clustering algorithm was applied to identify groups in
Lithuania. The 60 municipalities of Lithuania were grouped into 4 clusters in terms of noteworthy
relationships between industrial development and population size. In 3 of the clusters, the relationship
of industrial growth and population was direct. In cluster 4, however, the relationship
was opposite, a result which requires a further analysis of infrastructure and industrial sectors to
provide more precise policy recommendations. The theoretical contribution and findings from
the case study provides grounding to develop the market monitoring system.
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 Development of a Market Trend Evaluation System for Policy Making [PDF file] [Filesize: 681.47 KB]
 10.7441/joc.2020.02.02
Gruzauskas, V., Krisciunas, A., Calneryte, D., Navickas, V. & Koisova, E. (2020). Development of a
Market Trend Evaluation System for Policy Making. Journal of Competitiveness, 12(2), 22–37. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2020.02.02
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